Left to right: Candice Chan, Steven Shechter, Christopher Nguan
This need for effective knowledge translation led to a CHCM Operations Research (OR) partnership between Christopher Nguan, MD (VGH), Steven Shechter, PhD (Sauder School of Business) and their graduate student, Candice Chan, to develop such a tool for day-to-day use by kidney transplant surgeons.
Chan and the team developed an Excel-based mathematical model that analyzes data about both organ donors and potential recipients to streamline organ matching by predicting the probable outcomes of different matches. Such survival analyses on their own are not new. However, the team took the research a step further, by translating the model’s statistical output into a user-friendly nomogram – which illustrates graphically the result of the analyses and produces a probability of organ survival 5 years post transplant. The tool is in the spirit of personalized medicine, which clinicians believe is beneficial to patient outcomes.
“Usability of the model’s output is key to the tool’s success. We want to make this statistical analysis process accessible to physicians, who may not have the background or the time to dig into the details of the model itself.”
Nguan commends the team’s work. “This tool is exceedingly impressive in its thoroughness and practicality.” Thanks in part to the success of this project, he and Shechter are partnering on several other projects to bring OR into his clinical practice.
“Once those projects take off and I personally show that we can leverage OR in a clinical setting like this with real deliverables and real impact, I expect the demand for OR here to soar.”
For Chan, who now works as an Operations Engineer at Fraser Health, the project provided tremendous insight into the potential of OR to add value to health care planning, management and operations.
“Health care is definitely complex – not something you can solve in one day. But I love the challenges and have a long-term vision. I can already see where I can make a difference here.”
The nomogram allows physicians to analyze data about a potential organ donor and recipient and see the predicted 5 year survival on a probability line.
